Nigerians have challenged a report by The Economist which suggested that although Nigerians dislike President Bola Tinubu, they may still re elect him in 2027.
The report has triggered strong reactions from Nigerians, with some questioning how a president described as unpopular could return to power through the ballot box.
The Economist report pointed to Nigeria’s complicated political environment, including the advantage of incumbency, divisions among opposition parties, religious considerations and low voter turnout. It also acknowledged the security crisis and economic difficulties facing Nigerians, including kidnappings, killings, unemployment and the rising cost of living.
The reaction became sharper after comments accused European leaders and institutions of taking positions that could work against Nigeria’s national interest.
One of the posts reacting to the report accused Europeans of having launched what it described as an effort to ensure that Tinubu remains in power. Nigerians specifically questioned Tinubu’s recent movements in London and Paris and linked them to his meetings with European leaders.
They also pointed to The Economist’s London base and its assessment that Nigerians may re elect Tinubu despite disliking him.
The argument has raised a broader question among Nigerians: if citizens are unhappy with their president, why should foreign governments or international institutions appear interested in his political survival?
Nigerians also focused on French President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Tinubu at the Élysée Palace. The reaction contrasted Macron’s reception of the Nigerian president with the position attributed to the United States under President Donald Trump.
They argued that the different treatment of Tinubu by Western governments raised questions about whose interests were being protected.
The Economist report itself noted that Tinubu returned from Paris on September 29 after spending about a month in Europe and said his extended stay had raised questions in Nigeria. It also described the president as appearing confident about his re election prospects despite the country’s security and economic difficulties.
The report highlighted the situation in Borno, where the security crisis has affected farming, trade, employment and household incomes. It described an insurgency that has continued for years, alongside kidnappings and attacks that have disrupted economic activity.
It also reported that Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, had received praise from investors while many Nigerians were still waiting to see significant improvements in their daily lives. The report referred to inflation, food prices, energy costs and humanitarian pressures affecting households in parts of the country.
The report further discussed political opposition to Tinubu and argued that dissatisfaction with the government does not automatically translate into an electoral defeat for an incumbent. It pointed to the difficulty of combining opposition support behind one candidate and to the possibility that low turnout could affect the result.
That assessment has become one of the most controversial parts of the report, with Nigerians questioning why public dissatisfaction should be treated mainly as an electoral calculation rather than as a reflection of the conditions citizens are facing.
The question has become more prominent as the Tinubu Must Go slogan has continued to appear in protests and political demonstrations.
Hundreds of youths staged a Tinubu Must Go protest in Potiskum, Yobe State, on October 1, with demonstrators raising concerns about economic hardship, unemployment, insecurity, education and what they described as poor leadership. The protest coincided with Nigeria’s 66th Independence anniversary. Reports said the demonstration was peaceful and involved young men and women carrying placards and African Democratic Congress flags.
The Potiskum protest is the latest documented demonstration carrying the Tinubu Must Go message. Earlier in June, protesters in Abuja marched over the abduction of schoolchildren and teachers in Oyo State, chanting Tinubu must go and demanding that the government rescue the victims.
On Democracy Day in June, Reuters reported protests in Lagos and Abuja in which demonstrators demanded action over insecurity and chanted Tinubu must go. Protesters carried placards about kidnappings and insecurity and called for political change.
In August, the Take It Back Movement also organised demonstrations in Lagos, Abuja and other parts of the country over economic hardship, insecurity, inflation and what organisers described as political repression. The protesters raised demands concerning wages, living costs, insecurity and the direction of the government.
The protests have therefore focused on several issues rather than one single complaint. Economic hardship, food prices, unemployment, insecurity, kidnappings, inflation, fuel prices and concerns about governance have repeatedly appeared among the grievances raised by demonstrators.
The Tinubu Must Go campaign has also generated political controversy in Borno State, where five men were arrested and charged after being linked to T shirts carrying the slogan.
According to court documents reported by Premium Times, the men were charged with criminal conspiracy, inciting disturbance, disturbing public peace and thuggery. They pleaded not guilty.
Police later said the men were not prosecuted simply because they wore Tinubu Must Go shirts. The police said officers had also allegedly recovered suspected cannabis, tablets, a shisha pot and other items when the men were arrested during a patrol in Maiduguri.
The arrests nevertheless became part of the wider political argument over the Tinubu Must Go campaign, with critics questioning whether Nigerians should face criminal proceedings for openly expressing opposition to the president.
The controversy has added another dimension to the growing debate over public dissatisfaction with the administration ahead of the 2027 election.
The hardship argument has also been repeatedly raised by opposition politicians and activists. Their complaints have centred on the cost of food, fuel prices, unemployment, insecurity and the pressure these issues place on families and businesses.
There have, however, been documented protests in different parts of Nigeria during 2026, including demonstrations in Abuja, Lagos and other locations, as well as the more recent Potiskum protest.
The repeated appearance of the Tinubu Must Go slogan has therefore become part of the wider political debate surrounding the 2027 election.
For protesters and government critics, the argument centres on the conditions they say they are experiencing, including hunger, rising living costs, unemployment, insecurity and concerns about governance.
The Economist’s report has now added another question to that debate by suggesting that public dissatisfaction with Tinubu may not necessarily prevent him from seeking and potentially securing another term.
That has prompted Nigerians to ask why a president they say they dislike would still be expected to have a path to re election.
The debate is now unfolding against the background of protests, economic complaints, insecurity concerns, opposition activity and growing political mobilisation ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The question being raised by Tinubu’s critics is whether the dissatisfaction expressed on the streets, in political campaigns and across public discussions will translate into voting decisions when Nigerians go to the polls.
The London magazine published the piece on October 1 from Maiduguri. It said Tinubu looks unworried about the January vote even after about a month in Europe, and that he returned from Paris on September 29. The report said insecurity, costly food and reforms that have not yet improved daily life for most of the country’s 240 million people have left him unpopular, yet party machinery, a split opposition, religion and low turnout could still keep him in office.
The report triggered strong reactions. Some Nigerians asked how a president described as disliked could return through the ballot box.
Checking the political landscape also raises the argument that the 2023 election should not automatically be treated as a guide to what will happen in 2027. Nigerians argue that the political dynamics have changed, with the APC facing challenges to its dominance in several parts of the country.
They point to Tinubu’s weak performance in the South East and parts of the South in 2023, arguing that those areas remain difficult political territory for the president as he seeks another term.
For those watching the 2027 contest, the argument is simple: 2023 is not 2027. Political alliances can change, opposition parties can regroup, voters can change their positions and new issues can reshape the political contest.
The growing hardship, insecurity, protests and dissatisfaction with the government are also becoming major issues in the political debate. Nigerians s therefore argue that the 2027 contest will take place under different political conditions from those that shaped the 2023 election.
The political debate also continues to include controversies that have followed Tinubu for years, including disputes and allegations surrounding his academic certificates and past claims concerning drug related matters. These issues have repeatedly featured in political campaigns, court cases and public discussions about the president.
The certificate controversy has included questions raised over the academic documents associated with Tinubu and legal proceedings concerning his educational history. The drug related controversy has also been repeatedly raised by political opponents, particularly in connection with documents and allegations that have circulated publicly over the years.
The debate is also being heard in the North, where opposition to the APC and concerns about another Muslim Muslim presidential ticket have continued to emerge. Christian leaders and political groups have spoken against the continuation of a Muslim Muslim ticket, while concerns about insecurity, economic hardship and the performance of the government have also featured in political discussions across the region.
For Ngerians, this means the political loyalties seen in 2023 cannot simply be assumed to remain unchanged in 2027. They argue that economic hardship, insecurity, religious concerns, opposition mobilisation, controversies surrounding the president and changing political alliances could all influence the next election.
The central argument from these Nigerians is that the political environment has changed since 2023. What happened in the last election, they say, should not automatically be treated as a blueprint for 2027, because the issues facing voters, the strength of political parties and the alliances being formed are no longer exactly the same.
