The Presidency has claimed that Nigeria is the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world, trailing only Saudi Arabia, China, and India, based on economic projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, this statement, circulated by President Bola Tinubu’s media aides, is inaccurate. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released in April 2025, Nigeria ranks 37th in global GDP growth projections—not fourth.
According to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, 12 African and six Asian countries dominate the list of the fastest-growing economies, many driven by the oil sector. The top two economies, South Sudan (+27.2%) and Guyana (+14.4%), highlight the significant role of oil in economic growth.
See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.
Oil Powering Economic Growth
The top economies in this ranking are heavily tied to the oil sector, meaning fluctuations in production can have a drastic effect on GDP.
Let’s take a closer look at the top two.
South Sudan (+27.2%)
South Sudan’s GDP has fluctuated up and down in recent years due to an ongoing civil war that has thrown its population into extreme poverty.
As a landlocked country, South Sudan also relies on pipelines that run through its northern neighbor, Sudan, to transport its oil to the Red Sea.
In 2024, South Sudan’s most important pipeline ruptured, putting massive strain on government revenue. Repairing the pipeline is difficult because parts of it lie in active conflict zones.
According to Bloomberg, South Sudan has been seeking alternative routes to export its oil, as well as cash bailouts from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to stay afloat.
Guyana (+14.4%)
Guyana is the only South American country featured in this ranking. It was once one of the poorest countries in the region until major oil deposits were discovered off its coasts in May 2015.
According to a 2023 article from the Associated Press, oil production in Guyana began in December 2019 and has generated over a billion dollars in revenue.
The Guyanese government is using this money to fund a massive infrastructure boom which includes new hospitals, schools, highways, and its first deep-water port.
Analysts expect the country’s total oil revenues will reach $157 billion by 2040.
Meanwhile, Sunday Dare, Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications to President Tinubu, promoted the misleading claim, stating that Nigeria leads Africa in economic growth due to the administration’s reform policies. Similarly, Dada Olusegun, a social media aide to the President, shared an image asserting Nigeria’s position as the fourth fastest-growing economy. However, IMF data clearly shows multiple countries surpassing Nigeria’s growth projections.
The Presidency’s claim appears to misrepresent the IMF’s findings, raising questions about the accuracy of the information shared with the public. Nigeria, with its 230 million population and vast resources, has potential for significant economic progress, but it is not among the world’s top-growing economies as claimed.
