A renowned consulting firm, Stears, has projected the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, to win the 2023 presidential elections.
The mouthwatering projection is coming days after Nextiers also projected that Obi will win what it described a keenly contested elections.
Obi will be facing Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP in the general elections slated to hold on the 25 of this month.
Stears while speaking on its projection said, “The basic poll results (without applying the model) show Peter Obi holding a healthy lead over his more established rivals. In fact, his share of the vote is roughly Tinubu’s and Abubakar’s combined.”
“Unsurprisingly, voters in the South East (64%) and South South (48%) heavily back Peter Obi. More impressively, Peter Obi is also the most popular candidate in the North Central (26% of voters), ahead of Tinubu (19%) and Abubakar (11%).
“Although Rabiu Kwankwaso lags far behind in the national polls, he may be a credible threat in the North West, accounting for 8% of the votes. Perhaps more importantly, Kwankwaso’s presence splits North West votes, with the most popular candidate (Abubakar) getting just 18% of the vote and as much as 45% of North West respondents declining to reveal their preferred candidate.”
“The poll also shows that Nigerians vote along religious lines.”
“The numbers are stark, with only 17% of Christians opting for either Tinubu or Abubakar, while 43% support Obi. Meanwhile, Obi gets just 3% of the Muslim vote, even less than Kwankwaso (6%). Despite this, Nigerians are adamant that religion does not dictate their vote: just 4% of respondents selected religion as one of the three main factors determining their candidate choice.”
“Make of that as you wish. Going beyond these basic results, we can provide more precise predictions by accounting for different voter turnout scenarios. For simplicity, we provide two scenarios here.”
“High turnout: Includes every respondent that expressed an intention to vote except those that had not yet collected their permanent voter’s card (PVC) and did not indicate that they were definitely going to vote.”
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