By SKC Ogbonnia
Nigeria must resist the raging temptation to treat the outcome of her most fraudulent presidential election of 2023 (aka February 25) as business as usual. The consequence portends a deeper crisis than the annulment of the country’s most credible election of 1993 (aka June 12) that once placed the nation on the brink of collapse.
To begin with, nothing helped to control the June 12 crisis more than the fact that the election itself was of sheer political elitism. This situation made it much easier for the military to sustain a measure of stability by isolating and settling the political leaders who dictated the character and manner of the election, as well as its aftermath, including the crisis that followed.
Unlike June 12, February 25 had a populist appeal. The Nigerian masses, anchored by the youths, invested their heart in the election like never before. By 2023, the masses have grown wiser. They have grown up not to allow a clique of political merchants to dictate their future. They grew up not to settle for less. Very curiously, they have shown the commitment to pursue their social demands with increasing stridency.
Another obvious factor that is certain to prolong the February 25 crisis is the character of Bola Tinubu, the intended beneficiary. Tinubu, remember, is a quintessential pariah, a political leper of sort, who is generally disdained home and abroad. Sum it this way: the image of Bola Ahmed Tinubu evokes outrage, as hunger does anger.
This lack of popularity is not for nothing. Not only is the former Lagos State Governor the shadiest character ever to seek the Nigerian presidency, but his arrogance is also beyond the pale. Even more annoying is the man’s blind ambition. Despite the fact that an unfortunate combination of old age and ill-health has rendered him an invalid who no longer exhibits the physical nor the mental capacity to lead a complex nation like Nigeria, Tinubu still assumed the morbid moxie to “snatch” the presidential ticket of a ruling party.
To fan the flames is how he was declared president-elect. The electoral umpire threw laws of the land to the wind to declare Tinubu the winner. Needless to mention that the election result, which was made public, clearly shows that a vast majority of the Nigerian electorate still rejected him at the polls.
These fleeting flaws are daunting and explain the apparent disquiet in the country since Mr. Tinubu was declared a president-elect. Even those who managed to hold their nose to vote for him cannot in clear conscience celebrate his victory, let alone fathoming him as their president. The “president-elect” himself has not helped matters. Not long after the fraudulent declaration, Tinubu resorted back to his familiar mélange of chicanery, duplicity, and prodigality, as he hurriedly went hiding in his safe havens overseas and using an Islamic activity to lie about the purpose of his sudden disappearance.
Now, enter General Sani Abacha, the beneficiary of June 12. The objective fact is that his pedigree was instrumental in dampening the 1993 crisis. Lest we forget, before taking over the government, Abacha was hardly a controversial figure. He was neither viewed as corrupt nor a drug syndicate. Instead, Abacha was heralded by the civil society as a dutiful and patriotic military officer who could restore the true result of June 12.
Such presumption compelled notable democracy and human rights advocates, such as Olu Onaguruwa, Ebenezer Babatope, Abubakar Rimi, and Lateef Jakande to join Abacha’s government immediately he assumed power. This move, of course, created a level of credibly, at home, and abroad.
Any serious analysis on any serious Nigerian crisis is incomplete without attention to the international community, as well the Nigerian Diaspora. The military government was able to garner a measure of trust during the June 12 turmoil by sustaining a montage of propaganda abroad. But those days are gone when the world relied solely on the official mouthpiece of the Nigerian government or the false testimonies of its corrupt agents. Those days a far gone when we can preach justice abroad, while promoting injustice at home.
The inconvenient truth, if it is already not manifest, is that there are millions of Nigerian citizens, who are strategically entrenched in all the nooks and crannies of the world, and who tell at as it is. Most of them are the direct victims of the injustice in the homeland, but who have found grace in the foreign land. They have become the Nigerian Biblical Josephs. They are blessed with the capacity to counter any propaganda by the Nigerian corrupt oligarchy that is currently promoting Bola Tinubu as president-elect.
The last but definitely not the least reason February 25 portends a deeper crisis than June 12 is the current economic mood in the country. Though the military regimes remain blamed for poor management, the economic condition in 1993 was far better than the situation today, where Nigeria has become the home of the poorest people on earth. Of course, nothing provokes the proneness to social crisis more than societal poverty.
Further, it is clear President Muhammadu Buhari’s primitive politics, especially one of vendetta, hindered foreign investment, which largely contributed to the current economic crisis. This situation can only get worse when considered that the current plot to install Tinubu by foul means is bound to provoke deeper economic boycott by the Nigerian Diaspora community, most of who sympathize with Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of Labour Party.
SKC Ogbonnia, Former APC Presidential Aspirant, writes from Ugbo, Enugu State, Nigeria.
