Political analyst Henry Shield has said President Bola Tinubu’s chances of winning the 2027 presidential election are fading, saying that a large majority of Nigerians would reject the president if the election were held under the current political climate.
Shield made the assessment during an appearance on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, where he discussed Tinubu’s chances of winning another term in office.
According to Shield, if 1,000 Nigerians were sampled today, about 900 would not vote for Tinubu.
He said his assessment was based on market consultations, street surveys, personal interactions and conversations with Nigerians from different parts of the country.
Shield also challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to conduct an independent nationwide opinion survey to test his claim and determine the true mood of Nigerian voters ahead of 2027.
However, the 900 out of 1,000 figure has not been presented as the result of a published scientific opinion poll. It is therefore best understood as Shield’s political assessment rather than a verified prediction of the election result.
The statement comes as political activity ahead of the 2027 presidential election continues to grow.
Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 percent of the votes cast.
Atiku Abubakar finished second with 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07 percent, while Peter Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40 percent.
The political landscape has changed considerably since that election, with major opposition figures and political groups repositioning themselves ahead of 2027.
Shield’s comments also come amid continued debate over the performance of the Tinubu administration, particularly its economic policies and the impact of reforms on ordinary Nigerians.
Supporters of the president point to the administration’s economic reforms and efforts to reshape the economy, while critics continue to raise concerns about the cost of living, unemployment, security and the financial pressure facing households.
The 2027 presidential contest is expected to become more competitive as political parties select candidates and opposition groups attempt to build a united challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress.
The real test will come through credible opinion polls, voter participation and ultimately the votes Nigerians cast when the 2027 presidential election is held.
