The World Bank has warned that poverty in Nigeria is expected to worsen over the next five years, with a projected increase of 3.6 percentage points by 2027.
This projection is part of the latest Africa’s Pulse report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
Despite recent improvements in Nigeria’s non-oil economic activity—particularly in the last quarter of 2024—the report highlights deep-rooted structural challenges that threaten poverty reduction efforts. These include the country’s heavy reliance on natural resources and ongoing national fragility.
Nigeria is grouped with other resource-rich and fragile economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, where poverty is expected to deepen. By contrast, non-resource-rich countries in the region are projected to make more significant strides in reducing poverty.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report states.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the world’s highest concentration of extreme poverty. As of 2024, the region is home to 80% of the globe’s 695 million people living in extreme poverty. Half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 560 million extreme poor are concentrated in just four countries.
In comparison, South Asia accounts for 8% of the global extreme poor, East Asia and the Pacific 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean just 3%.
The World Bank attributes the lag in poverty reduction among resource-rich African nations to falling oil prices and weak fiscal systems. On the other hand, non-resource-rich countries are leveraging high agricultural commodity prices to drive growth and improve living standards.
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the report adds.
To reverse this trend, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria and similar economies prioritize better fiscal management and establish stronger social contracts with their citizens. These steps, it argues, are essential for fostering inclusive development and sustainably reducing poverty.
