The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlook for sub-Saharan Africa underscores the limited impact of Nigeria’s economic reforms 18 months after their initiation.
Despite broad-based efforts by the current administration, the reforms have yet to deliver the anticipated positive outcomes. Stakeholders in Nigeria’s food sector similarly critique the reforms, citing persistent struggles to meet the basic needs of citizens.
The IMF report, presented at the Lagos Business School by Deputy Director Catherine Patillo, acknowledges progress in some regional countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia. However, Nigeria was listed among nations falling short of their reform goals. The country’s 2024 growth rate is projected at 3.19%, below the regional average of 3.6%.
Inflation and Exchange Rate Pressures Persist
While inflation has declined across many sub-Saharan nations, Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 33.8% by October 2024, far exceeding the 21% target for the year. The IMF identifies Nigeria among countries struggling with high inflation, further hindered by unanchored monetary policies and severe exchange rate instability.
Foreign exchange pressures have eased in several nations, but Nigeria’s local currency continues to face depreciation, exacerbating economic woes.
Debt Burden and Fiscal Challenges
The report highlights Nigeria’s significant debt challenges, with interest payments consuming an increasing share of government revenues. Nigeria ranks among nations where debt service absorbs over 20% of revenues, constraining development spending and fiscal stability.
Food Sector Reforms Under Fire
Stakeholders in the agricultural sector have expressed dissatisfaction with the implementation of reforms. While the Tinubu administration has declared a state of emergency on food production and taken initial steps, critics, including ActionAid Nigeria, say the reforms have failed to address systemic issues such as high input costs, insecurity, and logistical challenges.
ActionAid Country Director Andrew Mamedu noted that despite budget allocations and policy adjustments, Nigeria remains among the most food-insecure nations globally, ranking third in Africa. He called for a people-centered approach, targeting smallholder farmers and addressing poverty, inequality, and climate challenges.
Voices from the Field
- AFAN’s Perspective: The National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Arc Ibrahim Kabir, described the reforms as “desirable” but stressed the need for mechanisms to ensure less painful implementation. He believes the agricultural sector has potential but requires perseverance and better execution.
- Jet FarmNG’s Analysis: Jerry Olanrewaju, Team Lead at Jet FarmNG, described the reforms as largely aspirational, with limited tangible outcomes. He called for measurable indicators and streamlined policies to boost agricultural productivity and food security.
- AFAN FCT’s Feedback: Hon. Nkechi Okafor, Chairperson of AFAN in Abuja, commended the government’s direct distribution of inputs to farmers, urging sustained efforts and equitable implementation of policies across states.
Path Forward
To unlock the potential of Nigeria’s economic and agricultural reforms, stakeholders emphasize the importance of inclusive, transparent policies. Recommendations include boosting subsidies for smallholder farmers, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and addressing systemic barriers to implementation.
While the reforms remain a work in progress, achieving food and economic security will require aligning government actions with the immediate needs of Nigerians, particularly the vulnerable rural populations who form the backbone of the agricultural sector.
