Nigeria’s political landscape is witnessing one of its most dramatic transformations since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
BBC report that, two of the country’s most prominent opposition leaders—Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi—have joined forces under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to challenge President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
This coalition marks a significant realignment as Abubakar breaks away from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Obi departs the Labour Party (LP). Their alliance within the ADC is seen as an effort to consolidate the opposition vote after their split cost them victory in the closely contested 2023 election.
Why This Alliance?
In the 2023 election, Tinubu won with just 37% of the vote, while Atiku secured 29% and Obi 25%, a combined 54%. The fragmented opposition vote enabled the APC to retain power. Analysts now say both leaders have realized that unity is their best path to power.
“Both Atiku and Obi felt they came so close in 2023 and would have maybe won on a joint ticket. They want to correct that mistake by working together this time around,” said political analyst Shehu Iliyasu.
At the formal announcement of their alliance with the ADC, interim chairman David Mark—a former Senate President—described it as a rescue mission aimed at preserving Nigeria’s democracy and preventing the emergence of a one-party state.
Who’s in the New Coalition?
Beyond Abubakar and Obi, the new coalition has attracted several political heavyweights:
- David Mark, former Senate President (PDP)
- Uche Secondus, former PDP chairman
- Nasir El-Rufai, former governor and ex-Tinubu ally
- Rotimi Amaechi, former minister and prominent figure in the last administration
While official candidacies have not been announced, political observers widely expect 78-year-old Atiku Abubakar to once again run for president—his fifth attempt—with 63-year-old Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor, likely to be his running mate.
What is the ADC?
The African Democratic Congress is not a new political entity. Originally established in 2005 as the Alliance for Democratic Change, the party adopted its current name upon official registration with Nigeria’s electoral body, INEC. It was chosen by the coalition over their preferred yet unregistered option, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA).
Though the ADC has never held major national sway, it enjoys a nationwide presence and political infrastructure in all 36 states. In the last election, its candidate Dumebi Kachikwu came fifth, and the party currently has two members in the National Assembly. Economist Professor Pat Utomi, its first presidential candidate in 2007, was pivotal in gaining national recognition for the party.
Can Atiku and Obi Truly Work Together?
Despite working together in 2019—with Obi as Atiku’s running mate—they lost to Muhammadu Buhari of the APC. Obi later exited the PDP for the LP in 2022 to pursue an independent path, citing alignment with his ideals.
Still, neither has ever publicly criticized the other, maintaining mutual respect even as opponents in the 2023 elections. Now reunited, observers are watching closely to see if their supporters—especially Obi’s loyal base—will embrace the power-sharing arrangement.
What Are Their 2027 Prospects?
According to Ben Kenneth, a Nigerian political analyst, the opposition coalition is now better positioned to defeat Tinubu:
“It’s clear they could’ve won in 2023 if they had combined forces. Now that they have, it significantly boosts their chances.”
However, Sani Hamisu cautions that incumbency is a strong advantage in Africa:
“When a president seeks a second term, he rarely loses. Tinubu will be a stronger candidate in 2027 simply because he’s the sitting president.”
Will Tinubu Seek Reelection?
Yes. The APC has already endorsed President Bola Tinubu for a second term. His tenure ends in May 2027, and although concerns persist about his health—he will be 75 during the next election—the presidency insists he is fit.
The APC has dismissed the new coalition as inconsequential. Ali Bukar Dalori, acting APC chairman, said:
“Nobody is talking about this coalition outside of Abuja. They’ll disappear after the elections like others before them.”
Fallout for PDP and Labour Party
The impact on the PDP and LP could be devastating:
- The Labour Party loses Peter Obi, its national figurehead and main reason for its surge in popularity during the last elections.
- The PDP faces an exodus of key leaders including Atiku, Mark, and Secondus, with analysts predicting that the ADC is poised to replace it as Nigeria’s main opposition party.
Political analyst Iliyasu Hadi said:
“When you look at the calibre of politicians now in the ADC versus what’s left in the PDP, it’s just a matter of time before ADC becomes the dominant opposition force.”
Despite retaining control of 11 states, both the PDP and LP may face further defections if their remaining governors shift allegiance.
Looking Ahead
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria’s political terrain is set for a fierce contest. The new ADC coalition is reshaping the narrative—whether it can hold together and unseat a sitting president remains to be seen.
But one thing is clear: Nigerian politics is entering a new era of high-stakes alliances and unprecedented realignments.
