The Middle Belt Forum has rejected the continued Muslim Muslim presidential ticket of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima, warning that the decision could carry serious political consequences for the ruling All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The renewed controversy follows Tinubu’s decision to retain Shettima as his running mate for 2027, effectively extending the same faith ticket that generated intense debate before the 2023 election. The Middle Belt Forum has argued that the arrangement reinforces a sense of exclusion among Christians and fails to reflect Nigeria’s religious and regional diversity.
The forum’s position comes amid growing political activity across the Middle Belt, a region that includes states such as Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba and Kogi, as well as parts of Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno, Adamawa and the Federal Capital Territory.
The Middle Belt has increasingly positioned itself as a decisive electoral bloc rather than an automatic extension of the wider northern political establishment. In recent engagements, the forum has maintained that the region is prepared to support a southern presidential candidate in 2027 who can guarantee inclusion, peace, fairness and effective representation.
The political warning is significant because the region demonstrated considerable influence during the 2023 election. Analysts and Middle Belt leaders have repeatedly pointed to the voting patterns in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa and the FCT as evidence that the region can substantially alter the outcome of a presidential contest.
The Middle Belt Forum has also criticised the argument that retaining the Tinubu Shettima combination is merely a question of competence or political performance. Its position is that leadership in a religiously and ethnically diverse country must also take into account inclusion and a sense of belonging among different communities.
The controversy intensified after the Middle Belt Forum described the renewed Muslim Muslim ticket as a continuation of an arrangement that excludes Christians from the highest two positions in the country. The forum said the decision represented another missed opportunity to recognise the strategic importance of the Middle Belt in Nigeria’s political equation.
The debate has also been fuelled by recent comments from Islamic cleric Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir, who publicly advocated continued Muslim Muslim political leadership and made controversial remarks about Christians. The comments triggered condemnation from Christian leaders and reopened broader concerns about the politicisation of religion in Nigeria.
Against that backdrop, the Middle Belt’s opposition to another Muslim Muslim ticket has assumed greater political significance.
The forum is not alone in questioning Tinubu’s 2027 strategy. Other northern and Middle Belt groups have warned that repeating the 2023 formula could cost the APC important battleground states. The Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum, for example, previously urged Tinubu to replace Shettima with a northern Christian, arguing that the decision could strengthen national cohesion and broaden the APC’s electoral appeal.
Some groups have gone further by warning that the APC could lose substantial support across the Middle Belt if it refuses to reconsider the ticket.
However, the political landscape is not uniformly hostile to Tinubu. Other Middle Belt voices have acknowledged projects and appointments under the administration and have said their support will depend largely on governance, development and inclusiveness rather than religion alone. Earlier reporting also showed that some Plateau and Southern Kaduna groups expressed support for Tinubu’s potential second term.
More recently, the Middle Belt Forum has strengthened its engagement with opposition figures. The forum met with Social Democratic Party presidential candidate Prince Adewole Adebayo, with its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Dr Stanley Kavwam, arguing that the region possesses enough numerical strength and political reach to influence who becomes Nigeria’s president in 2027.
Kavwam argued that the Middle Belt’s political importance cannot be ignored because of its ethnic, religious and geographical diversity. He also pointed to the region’s performance in the 2023 election, when the Labour Party and Peter Obi recorded strong support in several Middle Belt areas.
The emerging message from the region is therefore broader than opposition to a particular religious combination. It is increasingly about political bargaining, representation and the demand that presidential candidates recognise the Middle Belt as a major electoral force.
For Tinubu, the development presents a fresh political challenge. The President must now defend a ticket that has already proved electorally successful while attempting to convince voters who feel excluded that the administration can adequately represent their interests.
The 2027 contest is still developing, and it would be premature to conclude that Middle Belt opposition automatically translates into the defeat of the incumbent. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the region does not intend to surrender its votes without demanding political value in return.
With the presidential race gathering momentum, the Middle Belt’s position could become one of the most consequential factors in the battle for Aso Rock.
The warning to Tinubu is therefore unmistakable. If the APC chooses to rely solely on the Muslim Muslim formula without addressing concerns over religious balance, regional inclusion, security and governance, the party could face a much tougher electoral battle in 2027.
The Middle Belt is signalling that its votes are no longer guaranteed, and that any candidate seeking another term in Aso Rock will have to earn them.
